A brief summary of IPCC WG II Report Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability
What is IPCC?
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is the United Nations body for assessing the science related to climate change.
What do they do?
The IPCC was created to provide policymakers with regular scientific assessments on climate change, its implications and potential future risks, as well as to put forward adaptation and mitigation options.
Working Groups
IPCC assessments and special reports are prepared by three Working Groups, each looking at a different aspect of the science related to climate change: Working Group I (The Physical Science Basis), Working Group II (Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability), and Working Group III (Mitigation of Climate Change).
Working Group II
270 experts from 67 countries were invited to take on their roles in the WGII contribution to the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report. 57% of the selected experts come from developing countries and countries with economies in transition, and 43% are from developed countries. 54% of the selected experts are new to the IPCC process. 41% of them are women and 59% men.
Key Takeaways from the WG II Report
- Recognition of climate justice & indigenous communities
For the first time, IPCC highlights the importance of indigenous knowledge and local knowledge in understanding and evaluating climate change. There is also an emphasis on working towards climate justice.
IPCC further notes that climate justice comprises justice that links development and human rights to achieve a rights-based approach to addressing climate change. Though definition may vary, it generally includes three principles: distributive justice which refers to the allocation of burdens and benefits among individuals, nations and generations; procedural justice which refers to who decides and participates in decision-making; and recognition which entails basic respect and robust engagement with and fair consideration of diverse cultures and perspectives.
Human-induced climate change, including more frequent and intense extreme events, has caused widespread adverse impacts and related losses and damages to nature and people, beyond natural climate variability. Some development and adaptation efforts have reduced vulnerability. Across sectors and regions the most vulnerable people and systems are observed to be disproportionately affected. The rise in weather and climate extremes has led to some irreversible impacts as natural and human systems are pushed beyond their ability to adapt.
Climate change is contributing to humanitarian crises where climate hazards interact with high vulnerability. Climate and weather extremes are increasingly driving displacement in all regions, with small island states disproportionately affected. Flood and drought-related acute food insecurity and malnutrition have increased in Africa and Central and South America. Through displacement and involuntary migration from extreme weather and climate events, climate change has generated and perpetuated vulnerability.
- Unsustainable socio-economic developments, marginalization, and ongoing inequity such as colonialism and poor governance exacerbate vulnerability of ecosystems and people to climate change.
Vulnerability of ecosystems and people to climate change differs substantially among and within regions, driven by patterns of intersecting socio-economic development, unsustainable ocean and land use, inequity, marginalization, historical and ongoing patterns of inequity such as colonialism, and governance. Approximately 3.3 to 3.6 billion people live in contexts that are highly vulnerable to climate change. A high proportion of species is vulnerable to climate change. Human and ecosystem vulnerability are interdependent. Current unsustainable development patterns are increasing exposure of ecosystems and people to climate hazards.
Regions and people with considerable development constraints have high vulnerability to climatic hazards. Global hotspots of high human vulnerability are found particularly in West-, Central- and East Africa, South Asia, Central and South America, Small Island Developing States and the Arctic. Vulnerability is higher in locations with poverty, governance challenges and limited access to basic services and resources, violent conflict and high levels of climate-sensitive livelihoods (e.g., smallholder farmers, pastoralists, fishing communities).
Future human vulnerability will continue to concentrate where the capacities of local, municipal and national governments, communities and the private sector are least able to provide infrastructures and basic services. Future exposure to climatic hazards is also increasing globally due to socio-economic development trends including migration, growing inequality and urbanization.
- Risks in the near term (2021-2040) and long term (2041-2100):
1.5°C warming in the near future would certainly increase climate hazards and present risks to humans and ecosystems. Taking actions to limit global warming to 1.5°C is vital as it can substantially reduce losses and damages related to climate change, but not eliminate them all. Further warming will inevitably lead to more displacement with the increase of extreme climate related disasters and global economic damages.
Global warming, reaching 1.5°C in the near-term, would cause unavoidable increases in multiple climate hazards and present multiple risks to ecosystems and humans. The level of risk will depend on concurrent near-term trends in vulnerability, exposure, level of socioeconomic development and adaptation. Near-term actions that limit global warming to close to 1.5°C would substantially reduce projected losses and damages related to climate change in human systems and ecosystems, compared to higher warming levels, but cannot eliminate them all.
It is extremely important to keep global warming within 1.5°C. Any further increase beyond that threshold will instantly elevate levels of risk for extreme climate related disasters, biodiversity loss, ill health and premature death, food scarcity, and even global economic damages.
If global warming transiently exceeds 1.5°C in the coming decades or later (overshoot) 37, then many human and natural systems will face additional severe risks, compared to remaining below 1.5°C. Depending on the magnitude and duration of overshoot, some impacts will cause release of additional greenhouse gases and some will be irreversible, even if global warming is reduced.
What do the risks look like particularly for Asia?
- Urban infrastructure damage and impacts on human well-being and health due to flooding, especially in coastal cities and settlements.
- Biodiversity loss and habitat shifts as well as associated disruptions in dependent human systems across freshwater, land, and ocean ecosystems.
- More frequent, extensive coral bleaching and acidification, sea level rise, marine heat waves and resource extraction.
- Decline in coastal fishery resources due to sea level rise, decrease in precipitation in some parts and increase in temperature.
- Risk to flood and water security due to increased temperature extremes, rainfall variability and drought.
- Measures and adaptation to build climate resilience and the need to avoid maladaptation
Progress in adaptation planning and implementation has been observed across all sectors and regions, generating multiple benefits. However, adaptation progress is unevenly distributed with observed adaptation gaps. Many initiatives prioritize immediate and near- term climate risk reduction which reduces the opportunity for transformational adaptation.
There are feasible and effective adaptation options which can reduce risks to people and nature. The feasibility of implementing adaptation options in the near-term differs across sectors and regions. Integrated, multi-sectoral solutions that address social inequities, differentiate responses based on climate risk and cut across systems, increase the feasibility and effectiveness of adaptation in multiple sectors.
There is increased evidence of maladaptation across many sectors and regions since the AR5. Maladaptive responses to climate change can create lock-ins of vulnerability, exposure and risks that are difficult and expensive to change and exacerbate existing inequalities. Maladaptation can be avoided by flexible, multi-sectoral, inclusive and long-term planning and implementation of adaptation actions with benefits to many sectors and systems.
- Enabling climate resilient development
Climate resilience is the ability to anticipate, prepare for, and respond to hazardous events, trends, or disturbances related to climate.
Climate Resilient Development integrates adaptation measures and their enabling conditions with mitigation to advance sustainable development for all. Climate resilient development involves questions of equity and system transitions in land, ocean and ecosystems; urban and infrastructure; energy; industry; and society and includes adaptations for human, ecosystem and planetary health. Climate resilient development is enabled when governments, civil society and the private sector make inclusive development choices that prioritise risk reduction, equity and justice, and when decision-making processes, finance and actions are integrated across governance levels, sectors and timeframes. Climate resilient development is facilitated by international cooperation and by governments at all levels working with communities, civil society, educational bodies, scientific and other institutions, media, investors and businesses; and by developing partnerships with traditionally marginalised groups, including women, youth, Indigenous Peoples, local communities and ethnic minorities. These partnerships are most effective when supported by enabling political leadership, institutions, resources, including finance, as well as climate services, information and decision support tools.
- Current efforts and development trends have not been successful in advancing global climate resilient development. Decisions and actions taken in the next decade determine how resilient we can be in facing and living with climate change. Sadly the prospects to build climate resilient society are increasingly limited especially if global warming exceeds 1.5°C in the near future.
It is unequivocal that climate change has already disrupted human and natural systems. Past and current development trends (past emissions, development and climate change) have not advanced global climate resilient development. Societal choices and actions implemented in the next decade determine the extent to which medium- and long-term pathways will deliver higher or lower climate resilient development. Importantly climate resilient development prospects are increasingly limited if current greenhouse gas emissions do not rapidly decline, especially if 1.5°C global warming is exceeded in the near term. These prospects are constrained by past development, emissions and climate change, and enabled by inclusive governance, adequate and appropriate human and technological resources, information, capacities and finance.
Climate change is a threat to human well-being and planetary health. Any further delay in concerted anticipatory global action on adaptation and mitigation will miss a brief and rapidly closing window of opportunity to secure a liveable and sustainable future for all.
What can we do?
The report tells us many things we have already become aware of. The problem of climate justice and the importance of passing the mic to indigenous and marginalized communities have always been at the forefront of any movements made by intersectional climate activists. Now we are reminded again that the clock is ticking.
- Continue educating ourselves and others around us in the topic of climate crisis, climate justice, and intersectionality.
- Support local communities that are the frontrunner of tackling climate change, and get involved (donating, raising awareness, sharing content, building healthy discussions, etc).
- Urge government bodies to commit to real actions in mitigating global warming, and demand for their accountabilities.
- On a personal level, cut down on our environmental impacts by means that are realistic and possible to us, and lead a more sustainable life.
There is still another report to be published by WG III in April, which can shed some hope and inject optimism in dealing with climate crisis. The fight is not lost yet, as long as we continue working towards more sustainable and equitable future for all.
Source:
IPCC, 2022: Summary for Policymakers [H.-O. Pörtner, D.C. Roberts, E.S. Poloczanska, K. Mintenbeck, M. Tignor, A. Alegría, M. Craig, S. Langsdorf, S. Löschke, V. Möller, A. Okem (eds.)]. In: Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [H.-O. Pörtner, D.C. Roberts, M. Tignor, E.S. Poloczanska, K. Mintenbeck, A. Alegría, M. Craig, S. Langsdorf, S. Löschke, V. Möller, A. Okem, B. Rama (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press. In Press.
